End of March 2017 the Israeli government, for the first time in 20 years, allowed the construction of a new settlement on land conquered during the Six-Day War of 1967.
This new development made me consider possible solutions and scenarios for the middle east situation.
— I think it is important to say, that I have never been myself to the middle east and that I am getting all my information from European/American news outlets, mainly in England, Germany and the US “very fake news”. The views expressed here are my opinion based on those reportings. —
OPTION 1: Two-States (voluntarily)
Most states so far have embraced the Two-States solution, in which an Israeli and Palestinian state peacefully co-exist.
Both people would have safe, equal and adequate access to their holy sites. joint
Either joint control or UN-control would be exercised over holy sites both sites claim for their respective religion.
This has been the US’ position for a long time, it is also what I believe to be the best possible outcome.
However, things are looking worse than ever for this scenario to become reality. If anything, the latest action of the Israeli has moved us even further away from it.
It needs to be said that this is only the best solution if both sides agree that it is, if either side thinks they can get a better deal, it is not the best solution, as it simply will not work.
Let’s first look at the following assumption: the solution is good, however, the approach taken to implement it needs to be changed.
On one side we have Israel, a highly-developed nation with one of the most potent and experienced militaries in the world (and certainly in the region). On the other side, we have the Palestinians, living in separated territories. The West Bank is run by the Palestinian Authorities, Gaza is run by Hamas, an extremist group/party, which nearly entirely depends on foreign aid and recently saw its only power plant run out of fuel.
From my point of view, the aggressor over the last decade or so has been Israel. The Palestinian territories have been cut off from electricity, food, water, medical supplies and fuel by Israel; border security is so tight that it takes hours or days for Palestinians to get in and out of Israel (and visa verse).
Taken from Wikipedia, 28 April 2017
This leaves the Palestinians in a situation, where they simply do not have a choice. No matter what they do, Israel will oppress them further, the situation as consistently deteriorated over the last years. International help is limited, and foreign influence, for example through the UN is constantly being vetoed by America. This means that Israel has no incentive to come to the table and talk.
The change would have to come from America. As soon as their protection of Israel is reduced (not completely stopped), there would be movement in the region. This change does not have to be within the UN security council, it could also be reduced support payments to the Israeli military and a limit on arms trades.
Let’s move on. If we cannot achieve the Two-State solution by talks between the Israeli and Palestinians, then maybe the wrong people are doing the talking.
OPTION 2: Two-States (forced)
I still believe that a Two-State solution is the most desirable outcome, so why not force it upon them. Again, the US would have to give up their support of Israel in the UN, which would pave the way for massive deployment of UN troops to the region to oversee and guarantee the safety of the most affected areas. This would include access to all holy sites, as well as the deconstruction of most illegal settlements (yes, they are illegal!). Obviously, Israel would have to agree to this, which might be achievable by raising the price of none-compliance enough (a good old mix of positive and negative incentives). I know, there are a lot of religious fanatics/hardliners in Israel, but eventually, the more rational people might/will overcome them.
OPTION 3: One Israeli States
In this scenario, Israel will take full control of the region, integrate Palestinians to some extend and displace/relocate all those unwilling to accept the new order. These could be moved to other countries in the vicinity, in particular, those that have already taken in most of the refugees from the are region. Displacing and/or integrating over 4 million Palestinians will not be easy, and it is hard to predict how other global powers (mainly Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc) will react to this. It is also easy to imagine that anti-Israeli sentiment would sweep across Europe fast which would leave Isreal without some of their most dedicated supporters (e.g. Germany)
OPTION 4: One Palestinian States
Theoretically, this is an option… and before you shake your head, look at recent shifts and changes in policy. Under Trump the USA could step back from the nuclear deal with Iran, leading to the country developing a nuclear warhead within a couple of years (they already have the rockets to reach Isreal). By that time, the US might be fighting a massive, potentially nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. This “distraction” could lead the Iranians to nuke Isreal, and with Syrian and Hizbollah forces backed by Russia, Israel could quickly vanish from the map. This might not necessarily lead to a Palestinian state, but certainly to a Muslim one with full control over their territory and holy sites.
Options 2, 3 and 4 all do not seem very likely, although none are impossible. It all looks like Option 1 will be the only one pursued and hence the suffering of the region will continue to get worse.
This might lead to another Intifada, which in turn would lead to more Israeli aggressions and finally another invasion and occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Depending on the state of the rest of the globe (Iran, North Korea, Syria, Ukraine, Turkey, etc.) it is very hard to see how other forces in the region would or even could react.
Final thoughts:
What Israel is and has been doing to the Palestinians is quite frankly disgusting. For a people who have survived the holocaust, I would have expected more. However, it is also important to note that I cannot possibly imagine what it is like to live in a country that is surrounded by enemies, who all would like to eradicate it from the face of the earth. I also think that it is everyone’s right to fight for their own survival, I just think that there might be better ways of doing so.
Finally, having read the History of Israel, I do believe that, Muslims, Jews and Christians have a right to live in the region and access their holy sites.
Most recent Sources:
http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/israel-545.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/middleeast/palestinians-gaza-power-plant-crisis/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_territories
Opinions - on everything. 